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Main Page Contact Francisco Duque, 912.961.3173 For Immediate Release
Coastal Empire Growth Continues, but Leading Index Plummets(March 17, 2008) The Coastal Empire Economic Monitor for the fourth quarter of 2007 is now available at http://www.econ.armstrong.edu/cra/monitor.htm. The Economic Monitor, published by Armstrong Atlantic State Universitys Center for Regional Analysis, presents quarterly economic trends and short-term economic forecasts for Savannah's Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Data for the fourth quarter of 2007 showed that the economy of Coastal Empire continued to grow. However, much of that growth occurred in October, with clear signs of a cumulative weakening of the economy in the last two months of 2007. "The overall picture for the fourth quarter was deceptively strong," said Michael Toma, director of the Center for Regional Analysis. "While the top level numbers look good, there was marked deterioration in the underlying data as the quarter progressed. At this time, early data available for the first quarter of the year suggests continued weakening." The Economic Monitor's leading and coincident indexes offer readers an informational tool that can be used to adjust to changes in regional demand conditions. The signals provided by the indicators may be used to control inventory, optimize staffing, adjust marketing or pricing strategies, forecast revenue, or capitalize on other opportunities in the regional economy. "The forecasting index is sending a stronger signal about upcoming economic conditions that will be more challenging," Toma said. "The leading index plummeted by the largest amount in one quarter since 1990. Expectations for annualized growth in the regional economy have been adjusted downward to within 1.25 to 1.75 percent for the next six to nine months." Buddy Clay, revenue director for the City of Savannah, uses the Economic Monitor as a tool to help him understand the economic trends affecting city revenue. "The data in the Economic Monitor helps us understand some of the fluctuations in tax revenue for the city," said Clay. "Based on the data we see in the report, we will make adjustments to the revenue forecasts for the remaining of the year." The quarterly report measures the heartbeat of the local economy, based on the analysis of economic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of Labors Bureau of Labor Statistics, the City of Savannah, Georgia Power, and the three counties in the area's MSA -- Chatham, Bryan, and Effingham. The report presents a short-term forecast of the regions economic activity in the next six to nine months. The Economic Monitor is available free by electronic mail. To subscribe, email Emonitor@armstrong.edu and write "subscribe" in the subject line or body of the email. |
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